"K" LINE's president Yasuhide Sakinaga says he would like to agree with optimistic forecasts that the container trade will grow by more than 15 per cent on the transpacific route in 2004 and by almost 12 per cent in 2006.

The predictions were made by senior shipping executives at NYK's Tokyo office, who discovered a correlation between growth in the container business and economic growth in the United States and Europe, after compiling data on the shipping industry between 1994 and 2003.

NYK found that if the GDP growth rate in the United States is divided by growth in the container trade, an average ratio of 1:3.3 is reached. This means that if GDP grows by 1 per cent, container imports to the US will grow by 3.3 per cent.

The ratio for Europe is higher at 1:6.7.

By comparison, "K" Line has given a more conservative forecast that cargo volumes on the US trade will increase by 10 per cent, while the Europe trade is estimated to grow by around 13 per cent.

Mr Sakinaga told the Shipping Gazette in an interview that he believes the average growth ratio of 1:6.7 for the Europe trade will come down in a decade.

"Because US people started importing Asian cargo earlier than the Europeans and then this should have some time lapse between the US figures and Europe figures. Mainly the United States should have a little bit bigger figures than this one before, and such rates have matured. European trade has matured."

Mr Sakinaga sounded a word of caution on US growth this year, however.

"My point is whether this projection of GDP growth for next year and the following is what the US government or those people expects it to be...I believe they are saying at the moment between four and five per cent growth in GDP growth, but this is before the US presidential election, I don't know who will be the next president, but after this election they may have to take up another monetary policy to trim the budget deficit."

He said his company will implement precautionary measures in the event of a US economic slowdown in 2005, a prospect Mr Sakinaga hopes will not happen.